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Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara: betting tips & best odds

Liga MXKick-off · Monday, 17 August 2026 at 02:003 bookmakers compared

The market's true probabilities (bookmaker margin stripped out), the best price on every outcome, and where the numbers say the value is — updated ahead of kick-off. 18+.

01
The market, priced honestly
Sharp reference: market average. "True odds" = the sharp price with the margin removed — the closest thing betting has to a real probability.
OutcomeTrue chanceBest priceBookmakerEdge vs sharp
Santos Laguna19.6%4.75Paddy Power-6.9%
Draw23.1%4.00Paddy Power-7.4%
Guadalajara57.2%1.57LeoVegas-10.1%
02
Form & last season
Santos Laguna's recent league data isn't in our model yet — we'll treat them on market price alone. Guadalajara's recent league data isn't in our model yet — we'll treat them on market price alone.
03
The Touch Line read
The sharp market makes Guadalajara the favourite at 57.2%. Right now no bookmaker is out of line with the sharp price on this one — the value is in taking the BEST price on whichever outcome you fancy rather than the first price you see. The table above does that shopping for you.

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FAQ

Who is the favourite for Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?Stripping the bookmaker margin out of the sharpest market price (market average), Guadalajara are the most likely outcome at about 57.2%. That's the market's true probability, not a prediction of certainty.
What are the best odds for Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?Best prices across 3 bookmakers right now: Santos Laguna 4.75 (Paddy Power), the draw 4.00 (Paddy Power), Guadalajara 1.57 (LeoVegas). Odds move — always check the live price. 18+.
When do Santos Laguna play Guadalajara?Kick-off is Monday, 17 August 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), in the Liga MX.
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