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San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC: betting tips & best odds

MLSKick-off · Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 03:306 bookmakers compared

The market's true probabilities (bookmaker margin stripped out), the best price on every outcome, and where the numbers say the value is — updated ahead of kick-off. 18+.

01
The market, priced honestly
Sharp reference: market average. "True odds" = the sharp price with the margin removed — the closest thing betting has to a real probability.
OutcomeTrue chanceBest priceBookmakerEdge vs sharp
San Jose Earthquakes56.8%1.62William Hill-8.0%
Draw22.3%4.33Paddy Power-3.3%
St. Louis City SC20.9%4.50LeoVegas-6.0%
02
Form & last season
San Jose Earthquakes's recent league data isn't in our model yet — we'll treat them on market price alone. St. Louis City SC's recent league data isn't in our model yet — we'll treat them on market price alone.
03
The Touch Line read
The sharp market makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 56.8%. Right now no bookmaker is out of line with the sharp price on this one — the value is in taking the BEST price on whichever outcome you fancy rather than the first price you see. The table above does that shopping for you.

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FAQ

Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?Stripping the bookmaker margin out of the sharpest market price (market average), San Jose Earthquakes are the most likely outcome at about 56.8%. That's the market's true probability, not a prediction of certainty.
What are the best odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?Best prices across 6 bookmakers right now: San Jose Earthquakes 1.62 (William Hill), the draw 4.33 (Paddy Power), St. Louis City SC 4.50 (LeoVegas). Odds move — always check the live price. 18+.
When do San Jose Earthquakes play St. Louis City SC?Kick-off is Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 03:30 (UK time), in the MLS.
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